Long-Range Weather Forecasts of the Talmud, and Other Meteorological Revelations
Nov 8th, 2010 | By admin | Category: 2010-2011, Archives
by Rabbi Yisrael Rutman
Israel’s Water Authority is not exactly a font of optimism these days. Authority head Professor Uri Shani says the country is in for a seventh consecutive arid winter; and since almost all the annual rainfall in Israel is during the winter, that means a serious water shortage. The average available water has dropped in recent years from 1.5 billion cubic meters a year to as low as 800 million this year. Once again, conservation measures will have to be taken, which means rationing water to farms and possibly taxing homeowners to reduce water usage, as they did last year.
Based on present trends, the Water Authority foresees a water crisis of cataclysmic dimensions by 2013—if it were not for the new system of desalinization plants. By that year, some 70% of Israel’s fresh water will be produced by them, and the country saved.
Ordinarily, I would be offended by such predictions. The prophetic era came to an end about 2400 years ago. Meteorologists have enough troubling predicting rain or shine for tomorrow, how can they credibly forecast how much rainfall there will be six months from now?
However, I became aware recently that there is a scientific basis for such long-range forecasts, and that not only does it not conflict with Jewish tradition but there is actually Talmudic support for it.
It seems that atmospheric conditions above 5.5 kilometers from the ground are relatively stable and serve as a reliable indicator of general trends. What will happen on any given day will not be known with any degree of accuracy until shortly prior to the date forecast as meteorologists track the progress of weather systems by satellite and ground stations.
The Talmud (Yoma 21b) also mentions a long-range forecast, pertaining to the beginning of the winter season in the land of Israel. The direction of the wind in Jerusalem on the last day of the festival of Sukkot, says the Talmud, indicates the amount of rain for the coming winter. If the column of smoke rising from the woodpile on the altar is blown northward, it would be a rainy year; if it’s blown southward, they could expect a dry winter. Another indicator from the Talmud: If the first of the year is hot, it will be a hot year; if it is cold, it will be a cold year.
These were signs given from Above (in both senses), and do not seem to require any understanding of meteorological cause-and-effect. However, the Talmud elsewhere (Ta’anit 9b) reveals that the Sages’ knowledge of the natural world was far ahead of its time. The ancients hypothesized that the fresh water found in rivers and lakes had their source either in vast underground reservoirs or were supplied by the ocean. The question was, though, if it came from the ocean, what happened to the salt? Some suggested that there was a purification system underground of a nature as yet undetermined, which accounted for the desalinization and made the water fit for drinking.
The Sages of the Talmud understood differently. As Rabbi Eliezer ben Hurkanus said, almost 2,000 years ago, “The entire world drinks from the ocean, as it says in Genesis: “And vapor rose from the earth and watered the face of the ground.”
Said to him Rabbi Yehoshua: “But the waters of the oceans are salty?!”
Said Rabbi Eliezer: “They are sweetened [purified] by the clouds.”
It wasn’t until the late seventeenth century that European scientists were able to establish the origin of water and its natural cycle, including evaporation from the seas, the clouds (transfer, condensation, precipitation), and the surface waters and ground-waters which run into the sea, there to resume the cycle.*
The Sages also understood that one had always to account for a certain variable, which could render otherwise reliable predictions null and void: That factor is you and me.
When the Talmudic sage Ulla was visiting Bablylonia, he said that rain was fast approaching. But the clouds passed without dropping any rain. Said Ulla: “Just as the Babylonians are liars, so too their rain lies.” In the Maharsha’s classic commentary it’s explained that one of the reasons for the withholding of rain [even when conditions are right] mentioned in the Talmud is that people make big pledges of tzedakkah (charity) in public, but in the end don’t give the money.”
In the view of Jewish tradition, the human factor is as important in determining the weather as any atmospheric conditions. That is why the Sages instituted special prayers and fasting in time of drought, as a means of repenting our sins and appealing to the One who is ultimately in control of weather to command the life-giving rain.
These prayers have been invoked not only in Talmudic times but in recent years, as well. Hopefully, there will be no need for such prayers this year or the next. Nor for the desalination plants of the Israel Water Authority.
* Also see Kohelet (Ecclesiastes) 1:7: All the rivers run to the sea, and the sea is not full, to the place where the seas run, they turn around and go.
Sources: This article was adapted from Rav Dovid Kleiner, “Eretz Yisrael V’Hageshamim,” Mishpacha Magazine, Kulmus, Kislev (Hebrew edition), Pp. 18-23.
Related posts:
